Archive | September, 2010

Interview With Norwegian Progress Party Leader

30 Sep

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Here is the introduction to the interview:

“In a country of exceptionally high rates of personal taxation and home to one of the world’s most generous welfare states, Norway’s Progress Party, which describes itself as a “classical liberal” organization committed to “personal freedom,” is something of an anomaly. But it is an increasingly powerful anomaly, now ranking as the country’s second biggest political party.

In August, Progress Party leader Siv Jensen sat down with Reason senior editor Michael C. Moynihan and explained that Norwegians are growing tired of “regulation, bureaucracy, and high taxes” and why the Scandinavian health care model is bad for America—and Scandinavia.”

[via Reason.com]

Goldman Sachs: Call Energy Before ISM Data

30 Sep

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A noble rig...

Noble Energy Rig - by dans le grand bleu via Flickr

Goldman Sachs encourages investors to buy options on energy shares before the Institute for Supply Management presents the manufacturing report tomorrow because the shares are expected to have larger-than-average swings:

“Equity derivatives strategists John Marshall and Maria Grant recommended buying options on 25 stocks, including Chesapeake Energy Corp. and Noble Energy Inc., that historically have had above-average price moves on days when ISM data are released and whose options are “inexpensive.””

Full recommendation via BusinessWeek here.

Paris Motor Show 2010 Preview

30 Sep

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“Jaguar unveiled a gas-electric hybrid two-seat sports car concept, the C-X75, which the automaker claims is capable of a top speed of 205 miles per hour. The vehicle is powered by four 195-horsepower electric motors, one in each wheel.”

Transfer to the NY Times Slideshow here.

Rethinking Revenue – Sell Ads On Money!

30 Sep

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Perhaps selling advertisement on currency could help pay down the national debt?  Here are some suggested layouts that would enable firms to “cashvertise”.

For the tip i thank Mark J. Perry.

Emerging Market Outperform Developed Nations

30 Sep

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Great Wall, China

China via Wikipedia

“Emerging markets are attracting more money from share offerings than industrialized nations this quarter for the first time in at least a decade as companies in Brazil and China complete record sales.”

Full article from Bloomberg here.

Thursday Transaction Testimony

30 Sep

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Barron’s: Strong Stocks or Debilitated Dollar? Stocks are up only in terms of a declining dollar. In real terms, relative to gold, stocks have gone nowhere.

BBC: Moody’s adds to Spain downgrades. Spain has lost its last triple-A credit rating with the major rating agencies, following a downgrade from Moody’s.

Bloomberg: Nordics Seek `Polluter Pays’ Bank Tax to Fund Crises. Sweden, Finland and Denmark are promoting a European Union-wide bank levy to force lenders to help share the clean-up costs of future banking crises.

BusinessWeek: Blame Hyperactivity on Genes, Not Poor Parenting. Don’t blame attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder on poor parenting or excess candy. A new study suggests it’s all about genes.

trader

Trading by killthebird via Flickr

CNBC: Thursday’s Senate Banking Testimony – What to Expect. Wall Street will be closely watching the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday as the nation’s top financial officials testify about the roll out of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law.

Forbes: Dems Need More Than Just Votes. Democrats may be hurting with young, poor and minority voters who often need a particular motivator.

MarketWatch: Auto makers’ strong finish. Auto makers are expected to post solid gains for September, boosting hopes for upbeat end of year.

Reuters: Jobless claims to dip slightly. A Reuters poll sees a small improvement in U.S. jobless claims, but not nearly enough to rally confidence.

The Business Insider: Gold is starting to climb the list of greatest bubbles ever.

The Financial Times: Ireland unveils bank rescue package. Country’s fiscal deficit expected to rise to 32% of GDP.

The Guardian: US politics is angry, polarised, and gridlocked. Can it be reformed? Washington moves at the pace of Brezhnev’s Soviet Union. It needs to be more like Silicon Valley if it is to compete with China.

The New York Times: China May Soon Make Use of Its Solar Assets. China has established itself as a leading producer of solar energy equipment, but it has made surprisingly little use of solar energy at home.

The Telegraph: 205mph electric jet Jaguar. Jaguar’s radical electric concept supercar wows Paris.

The Wall Street Journal: Mobile-Home Industry Seeks Comeback. Builders of manufactured homes missed out on the great American housing boom. Now some of them hope their industry has finally stopped imploding.

Hedge Fund Manager Discuss Capitalism

29 Sep

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BBC HARDtalk interviews hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry about his capitalist approach to the financial system. In the third part Hendry thinks that the era of easy money is over, that there are too many hedge funds; the amount of hedge funds may fall by a factor of 80 % and that stock markets 20 years from now may be no higher than they are today.

The Stock Market Through The Gold Investors Chrystal Ball

29 Sep

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“Thus if gold is truly a world currency, then the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks is dirt cheap when priced in it. For every ounce of gold, you can now buy more than five times the amount of stocks you could have ten years ago, as shown below.

The tricky question is where this stocks-to-gold ratio will go over the next ten years.”

[via The Business Insider]

Euro: Heading For A Currency Collapse?

29 Sep

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“Des Lachman (aka Dr. Doom), has a very bleak outlook on the near future of the euro. While the crisis of earlier this year has abated, and European policy makers bought themselves a little bit of time, he thinks collapse will happen and soon.”

Tariffs Still Clogging Up The Keyway To Prosperity

29 Sep

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I never quite seem to get over the astonishing amount of discriminating regulations; tariffs and subsidies – that some claim to be implemented by “democracy”. I found this on Carpe Diem describing the current U.S situation:

“Most Americans think of the U.S. as a free-trade country with open markets, and China as a protectionist country with closed markets.  And yet the U.S. is quite protectionist, with more than 12,000 tariffs (i.e.taxes) on imported products that are sometimes as high as 350% in the case of tobacco (pictured above); 164% on peanuts; 100% on jam, chocolate and ham; and 48% on sneakers, see the 25 American Products That Rely On Huge Protective Tariffs To Survive.”

Readers who are familiar with comparative policies, recognize that no country is completly liberated from distinctive trading regulations. Some nations are clearly more restrictive relative to others; Let us take a closer look at Norway. The value of Norway’s total exports and imports of goods and services in 2001 amounted to 75 per cent of total value added (GDP), while the average for all countries is about 45 percent. This Nordic nation has in selected industries a more capitalistic approach to world trade; The petroleum related exports are a pivotal contibutor to our national wealth (and state controlled pension fund - world’s second largest Sovereign wealth fund). With high oil prices the consumers naturally benefits from abundant job creation and solid purchasing power. Conclution: No need for too much government intervention.

A Public Enemy?

But some segments like agriculture, where we do not seem to profit from production in any way, are obviously more restrictivly regulated compared to other nations. So why do we accept policies that makes our food expensive? Just by crossing the border and buying your eggs in Sweden you reduce the price by over 50 %  - but the government regulates to prevent individuals (the democracy) in Norway to benefit from the price difference. I partially understand the self-sufficiency-, health – and environmental arguments pro-subsidies, but doesen’t jobs creation and reduction of hunger and poverty in developing countries trumph the doubtful former arguments? In Norway the parliament slap a 555 % custom duty on imported chicken and about 400 % tax on imported meat and milk. We destroy overproduced eggs, farmers demand higher prices on meat when they manufacture more than the consumers want to buy – and every family pays about 143 USD (800 NOK – total: 1 Billion NOK) in subsidies to exported our national cheese Jarlsberg. Let me remind you of this graph from The Economist showing how selected countries spend taxpayer money on agriculture:

“Farmers are getting by with fewer subsidies in many countries around the world compared with 20 years ago. Yet subsidies still accounted for more than three-quarters of farmers’ incomes in Norway, Switzerland and Iceland between 2007 and 2009. And farm subsidies in the EU made up a slightly greater proportion of farmers’ incomes in 2007-09 than two decades beforehand.”

Addendum: The Swiss finance minister; Hans-Rudolf Merz – when he earlier this month burst into a giggle fit while reading a bureaucraticly formulated speech. Subject; spiced meat imports. In this clip he tells a joke – for me that perfectly summarizes many of the tariffs as one concept- a ridiculous joke!!

David Sands On Why It’s Time To Legalize Poker – Gambling And Freedom

29 Sep

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David “Doc” Sands became the world’s top-ranked online tournament player in 2010 and has won about $2.5 million playing poker tournaments. He sat down with Reason.tv to discuss poker and individual liberty, and the hypocrisy embedded in America’s gambling laws:

“At the same time they’re facilitating lotteries, they’re telling us that online poker is a game of chance that we shouldn’t be allowed to play.”

Details from Reason.com here.

Arbitrage Allure Du Jour

29 Sep

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Barron’s: A Bullish Option on Gold. Buying calls on a popular gold ETF is one way to play a possible new round of Federal Reserve bond buying.

BBC: Europe set for austerity protests. Thousands of people from across the EU are expected to march in Brussels to protest against sweeping austerity measures by many national governments.

Red light on Wall Street

Red Light? - by Ben Sutherland via Flickr

Bloomberg: Spain Girds for First General Strike in 8 Years to Protest Cuts.Spanish workers held their first general strike in eight years, disrupting energy demand and transportation, to protest Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero ’s spending cuts and easing of labor laws.

BusinessWeek: College Grads Ranks Top Employers. Google is still No. 1 for business students in the latest Universum ranking; the Big Four accounting firms round out the top five.

CNBC: 7 Reasons Why The Market Stays Higher. Investors on Tuesday learned that US consumer confidence is at its lowest level since February, but that didn’t stop the market from maintaining its 9 percent gain this month. Despite negative news, Cramer said the market continues to push higher for these seven reasons.

Forbes: Chevron Goes Deep Off Canada. Oil giant quietly drills first deepwater well in North America since BP disaster.

MarketWatch: Crocs back in fashion. Maker of brightly colored clogs and now actual shoes as well regains its stock-market stride.

Reuters: Quantitative easing on horizon? Federal Reserve presidents take to their respective podiums amid reports of a second round of quantitative easing.

The Business Insider: Hugh Hendry Making Huge $2 Billion Bet On Asia’s Failure. Hendry is making a big bet against Japanese credit.
The Financial Times: Manufacturing optimism lifts Japan and China shares.

The Guardian: Defence cuts ‘draconian’, Fox warns Cameron. “Draconian” cuts to defence spending cannot be carried out while the country is at war without risking serious damage to troops’ morale, Dr Liam Fox warns PM in private letter.

The New York Times: Congress Likely to Urge China to Raise Its Currency. The House will vote Wednesday on a measure threatening punitive tariffs on China’s imports to the United States.

The Telegraph: Buffett fund illustrates ‘rip off’ management charges. Terry Smith uses Berkshire Hathaway to show how high fees eat up returns.

The Wall Street Journal: Walloping the Middle Class. The Democrats’ tax punt may mean that a family of four with an income of $45,000 will pay $2,083 more in taxes.

The Wargument: Why Dow Is Heading For $38k By 2025

28 Sep

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Jeff Hirsch forecasted that we would see Dow in $38K in 2025 this morning (Discussed here, and full piece here):

“He argues that the current secular Bear market will end ~18 years after the last secular Bull market ended in March 2,000. I cannot place the end of the Bear that precisely, but I figure its coming sometime this decade.

Ironically, the route Jeff takes to get to $38k uses an approach similar to Prechter’s: Long historic cycles that impact group psychology, with regular wars that lead to massive government interventions and big inflation (so far so good). As the chart below shows, major global wars were followed in the 20th century by high inflation and 500% market moves over the following decades. Note huge 1447% Dow move from 1982 – 2000 — the theory being it was caused by an outsized 207% CPI inflation.”

Full story: War & Peace + Inflation + Secular Bull = Dow 38K ?

[via The Big Picture]

Way To Go Republicans! – Liberation Of Trade Is Still Important

28 Sep

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President Barack Obama speaks to a joint sessi...

President Barack Obama speaks to a joint session of Congress - via Wikipedia

The protectionist tax incentives – promoted by the Democrats – to keep jobs in U.S. was blocked in Senate today:

“The U.S. Senate failed to advance legislation that would create tax breaks for companies that move foreign-based jobs to the U.S. and penalize those that send jobs offshore.

The 53-45 vote was short of the 60 needed to move the measure forward; four Democrats and independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut voted with 40 Republicans against allowing formal consideration of the bill.”

Good to see that the Republicans are true to their legacy; still strong supporters of a freer trade – crate jobs abroad where they are cheap and appreciated! Read the full article from Bloomberg here.

Privatizing Our Way Out Of Traffic

28 Sep

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Same as India, China's economic surgehas resul...

Winston visions “privatizing and deregulating the vast majority of the transportation system - via Wikipedia

Economist Clifford Winston has for many years argued that the American transportation system could use a major overhaul. He introduces additional reasons in his latest book  - Last Exit: Privatization and Deregulation of the U.S. Transportation System. Both economists and consumers can recognize the complaints addressed the current inadequate system: “In-flight delays and earlier airport arrivals for security screening were estimated to cost passengers and airlines in the United States at least $40 billion in 2005,” and “poor highway design and road conditions are a major contributor to accidents and fatalities that cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions.”

“At this point, Mr. Winston is calling only for experiments, but if they are successful, he envisions “privatizing and deregulating the vast majority of the transportation system” and “reducing the government’s primary role in this sector to mitigating externalities, such as emissions, and to enforcing the antitrust laws.”

His vision is breathtaking, and to make his ideas less overwhelming, Mr. Winston begins by reminding us that roads, rails and airports were not always a public affair.

America’s early 19th century road network was built by turnpike entrepreneurs; airports and streetcar systems often began in private hands. More than a tenth of the people listed in Harvard Business School’s “Great American Business Leaders of the Twentieth Century” had something to do with transportation.

Mr. Winston justifies his call for experimentation and reform with a series of scathing critiques of the status quo.

Other criticisms are more nuanced: “Urban bus and rail systems tend to use standardized vehicles, instead of a mixed-vehicle fleet that could enable transit managers to adjust seat capacity to variations in passenger demand by time of day and route,” he writes.

Gilles Duranton and Matthew Turner’s “Fundamental Law of Traffic Congestion: Evidence From the U.S.” states that vehicle-miles-traveled increases roughly one-for-one with miles of roads built. More highways mean more drivers, so we are never going to build our way out of traffic congestion. People will keep on driving until they are made to pay for that privilege.

Private road operators or airports will charge higher fees during peak periods to cut down on congestion, and they have incentives to innovate technologically to attract customers and cut costs. Mr. Winston notes that capsule, or pod, hotels, “which enable fliers to nap between flights,” happen to be “available in private airports, but none is available in the United States.”

More from the Economix Blog here.

Tuesday Trading Toccata

28 Sep

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Stock market, Wall street, NY

Wall Street - by germeister via Flickr

Barron’s: Buying the Asian Tigers One by One. Look for dips in country ETFs to buy great markets such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia.

BBC: IMF backs coalition spending cuts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the UK economy is “on the mend” and has backed the coalition government’s plans to cut spending.

Bloomberg: Ken Fisher Dubs New Normal `Idiotic,’ Sees `Great’ Decade Ahead,The next decade will be as good for investors as the 1990s, said Ken Fisher, the billionaire chief executive officer of Fisher Investments Inc., dismissing notions that developed economies face below-average growth.

BusinessWeek: Apple Threatens Search Giants’ Mobile Ad Shares. Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo! have swiftly lost share in the U.S. mobile advertising market to Apple’s new iAd. Independent rivals such as Jumptap and Millennial Media are gaining, too.

CNBC: Asia to Grow 8.2% in 2010, Fastest in 3 Years: ADB. Growth across Asia and the Pacific will be the fastest this year since 2007 as the region recovers strongly from the global crisis, but will moderate in 2011, the Asian Development Bank said on Tuesday.

Forbes: It’s Time For The U.S. To Export Natural Gas. The U.S. has a glut of natural gas. It’s time we start exporting it.

MarketWatch: ‘Long, slow’ summer to weigh on brokers. Analysts cut third-quarter earnings estimates for Goldman and Morgan Stanley as slow summer trading by clients continues into September

Reuters: U.S. business fears “downward spiral” in China trade. Congressional passage of a bill to pressure Beijing to revalue its currency could further harm U.S.-Chinese trade relations already hampered by mutual mistrust and suspicion, U.S. companies invested in China said on Monday.

The Business Insider: Google makes its most ridiculous investment yet.

The Financial Times: Goldman star rises -Evans is gaining on US rivals.

The Guardian: Shell increases trade with Iran. Oil giant steps up orders of Iranian crude despite others halting due to sanctions imposed by UN, EU and US.

The New York Times: Saab Talks With BMW About Forming Alliance.The struggling Swedish brand, now owned by Spyker Cars of the Netherlands, could obtain hybrid and other fuel-saving technology from BMW.

The Telegraph: Savers told to stop moaning and start spending. Older households can afford to suffer and should “not expect” to live off interest payments because they benefited from property price rises, Bank of England deputy warns.

The Wall Street Journal: U.K.’s Immigration Rules Slammed. Large corporations and other employers are turning up the heat on the U.K. government as it finalizes new immigration rules that industry says would restrict their ability to recruit key talent.

Most Efficient Workforces

27 Sep

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Introducing the Most Efficient Workforces in the World:

[via Good & The Big Picture]

The Right to Earn a Living

27 Sep

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“Sandefur discusses the “four big Progressive ideas” that came about during the New Deal-era Supreme Court in the 1930′s. They include: 1) Rather than being inherent, rights are permissions given to individuals by the state; 2) Government exists to “improve” society, not to protect individual rights; 3) A reading of judicial restraint that means when government violates your rights, the courts should do nothing about it; and 4) Belief in a “living Constitution,” that will be radically reinterpreted in various contexts.”

[via Reason.com]

Happy Birthday, Google!

27 Sep

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This September Google is celebrating its 12th birthday. The Telegraph made a timeline of the search giant’s rise and rise from a garage in Silicon Valley to stratospheric success here.

Find out why Cody Willard thinks Google’s going to $2000 per share here.

[Quote via MarketWatch]

Obama Presses Chinese To Raise Prices To The Poor And Middle Class

27 Sep

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Obama in Beijing Imperial Palace

Obama in Beijing Imperial Palace - via Wikipedia

“Democrats in Congress are threatening to pass legislation before the midterm elections that would slap huge tariffs on Chinese goods to undermine the advantages Beijing has enjoyed from a currency, the renminbi, that experts say is artificially weakened by 20 to 25 percent.

Somehow this was written with words like “competitiveness” and “artificially weakened” to hide the fact that what we are talking about is raising prices to American consumers (by as much as 20-25%, one infers from the last paragraph).  Not only would this make Chinese goods more expensive, but it would reduce the downward price pressure on goods made elsewhere”

Full comment from the Coyote Blog here.

Opening Bell Preludium

27 Sep

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Barron’s: Profit From the Absence of Risk. Much of the “risk premium” in puts and calls that expire in a month or two has been erased. Now may be a good time to use cheap options to hedge your stock portfolio against a decline.

BBC: China moves on US chicken imports. China’s government says it will impose import duties on US chicken products it says are being unfairly dumped on the Chinese market.

Lehman Brothers Building Photoshopped

Lehman by Christopher S. Penn via Flickr

Bloomberg: Lehman Art Sale Raises $12.3 Million for Creditors at Sotheby’s, New York. A sale of art from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. yesterday raised $12.3 million for creditors.

BusinessWeek: More Wives Head For Work. As men cope with unemployment amid the stalled economic recovery, more married women are taking their first job or increasing their hours.

CNBC: The Scrap Indicator. If the market in scrap is any indication, things could be looking up for the US economy.

MarketWatch: U.S. Economy is stuck in a rut. Manufacturing, consumer confidence and personal income reports won’t show significant growth.

Reuters: The week ahead: Manufacturing in focus. Reuters editors say investors will focus on upcoming ISM manufacturing data for signs of economic growth, and watch out for a RIM offering to challenge Apple’s iPad.

The Business Insider: Job Losses Coming In A Few Weeks, As Key Stimulus Program Ends. A key subsidized jobs program won’t be getting extended.

The Financial Times: Bridge building: Teaching Jewish and Muslim entrepreneurs.

The Guardian: Fears that arts degrees are becoming ‘gentrified’. Study shows wealthiest students dominate arts and humanities subjects such as history and philosophy.

The New York Times: Economic View : What the Rich Don’t Need. Want to give affluent households a present worth $700 billion over the next decade? In a period of high unemployment and fiscal austerity, this idea may seem laughable. Amazingly, though, it is getting traction in Washington.

The Telegraph: The Tories must make the case for capitalism. Even if Labour becomes irrelevant electorally under Ed Miliband, its assumptions could dominate debate.

The Wall Street Journal: Market War Between Traders, Investors. Some of the country’s biggest investors are hoping to strike back after years of having their buy and sell orders picked off by high-frequency trading firms.

The EU Is Regulating Itself Into Irrelevance

26 Sep

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[via Mark J. Perry]

In An Age Of Macro Forces – Is The Art Of Stock Picking Dead?

26 Sep

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The poll result from The Wall Street Journal so far:

“More and more investors aren’t bothering to pore through corporate reports searching for gems and duds, but are trading big buckets of stocks, bonds and commodities based mainly on macro concerns. As a result, all kinds of stocks—good as well as bad—are moving more in lock step.”

Vote and share your opinion here.

Emerging Markets Investor Conference

26 Sep

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Saint Peter Port, Guernsey

Barclays via Wikipedia

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Capital Hilton
1001 16th Street NW
Washington, DC.

Agenda, registration and more information here.

Hollywood Hates Capitalism – Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps Edition

26 Sep

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“Oliver Stone’s uber-villain Gordon Gekko is back in the new film Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, which (surprise!) features greedy capitalists behaving badly. It might remind you of Avatar, Mission Impossible 2 or roughly a zillion other films in which capitalists destroy the environment, concoct killer viruses, harvest organs, and cover up murder in order to feed their lust of profit. Even when capitalism isn’t the primary target, the representatives of commerce are often flat-out repulsive (think Jabba the Hutt).

Perhaps it’s ironic that Hollywood filmmakers practice what they preach against. Sure he palls around with socialist dictators Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, but there’s no doubt Oliver Stone hopes to rake in obscene profits with his new flick.”

[via Reason.com]

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