Archive | 22:17

The Wargument: Why Dow Is Heading For $38k By 2025

28 Sep

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Jeff Hirsch forecasted that we would see Dow in $38K in 2025 this morning (Discussed here, and full piece here):

“He argues that the current secular Bear market will end ~18 years after the last secular Bull market ended in March 2,000. I cannot place the end of the Bear that precisely, but I figure its coming sometime this decade.

Ironically, the route Jeff takes to get to $38k uses an approach similar to Prechter’s: Long historic cycles that impact group psychology, with regular wars that lead to massive government interventions and big inflation (so far so good). As the chart below shows, major global wars were followed in the 20th century by high inflation and 500% market moves over the following decades. Note huge 1447% Dow move from 1982 – 2000 — the theory being it was caused by an outsized 207% CPI inflation.”

Full story: War & Peace + Inflation + Secular Bull = Dow 38K ?

[via The Big Picture]

Way To Go Republicans! – Liberation Of Trade Is Still Important

28 Sep

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President Barack Obama speaks to a joint sessi...

President Barack Obama speaks to a joint session of Congress - via Wikipedia

The protectionist tax incentives – promoted by the Democrats – to keep jobs in U.S. was blocked in Senate today:

“The U.S. Senate failed to advance legislation that would create tax breaks for companies that move foreign-based jobs to the U.S. and penalize those that send jobs offshore.

The 53-45 vote was short of the 60 needed to move the measure forward; four Democrats and independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut voted with 40 Republicans against allowing formal consideration of the bill.”

Good to see that the Republicans are true to their legacy; still strong supporters of a freer trade – crate jobs abroad where they are cheap and appreciated! Read the full article from Bloomberg here.

Privatizing Our Way Out Of Traffic

28 Sep

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Same as India, China's economic surgehas resul...

Winston visions “privatizing and deregulating the vast majority of the transportation system - via Wikipedia

Economist Clifford Winston has for many years argued that the American transportation system could use a major overhaul. He introduces additional reasons in his latest book  - Last Exit: Privatization and Deregulation of the U.S. Transportation System. Both economists and consumers can recognize the complaints addressed the current inadequate system: “In-flight delays and earlier airport arrivals for security screening were estimated to cost passengers and airlines in the United States at least $40 billion in 2005,” and “poor highway design and road conditions are a major contributor to accidents and fatalities that cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions.”

“At this point, Mr. Winston is calling only for experiments, but if they are successful, he envisions “privatizing and deregulating the vast majority of the transportation system” and “reducing the government’s primary role in this sector to mitigating externalities, such as emissions, and to enforcing the antitrust laws.”

His vision is breathtaking, and to make his ideas less overwhelming, Mr. Winston begins by reminding us that roads, rails and airports were not always a public affair.

America’s early 19th century road network was built by turnpike entrepreneurs; airports and streetcar systems often began in private hands. More than a tenth of the people listed in Harvard Business School’s “Great American Business Leaders of the Twentieth Century” had something to do with transportation.

Mr. Winston justifies his call for experimentation and reform with a series of scathing critiques of the status quo.

Other criticisms are more nuanced: “Urban bus and rail systems tend to use standardized vehicles, instead of a mixed-vehicle fleet that could enable transit managers to adjust seat capacity to variations in passenger demand by time of day and route,” he writes.

Gilles Duranton and Matthew Turner’s “Fundamental Law of Traffic Congestion: Evidence From the U.S.” states that vehicle-miles-traveled increases roughly one-for-one with miles of roads built. More highways mean more drivers, so we are never going to build our way out of traffic congestion. People will keep on driving until they are made to pay for that privilege.

Private road operators or airports will charge higher fees during peak periods to cut down on congestion, and they have incentives to innovate technologically to attract customers and cut costs. Mr. Winston notes that capsule, or pod, hotels, “which enable fliers to nap between flights,” happen to be “available in private airports, but none is available in the United States.”

More from the Economix Blog here.

Tuesday Trading Toccata

28 Sep

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Stock market, Wall street, NY

Wall Street - by germeister via Flickr

Barron’s: Buying the Asian Tigers One by One. Look for dips in country ETFs to buy great markets such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia.

BBC: IMF backs coalition spending cuts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the UK economy is “on the mend” and has backed the coalition government’s plans to cut spending.

Bloomberg: Ken Fisher Dubs New Normal `Idiotic,’ Sees `Great’ Decade Ahead,The next decade will be as good for investors as the 1990s, said Ken Fisher, the billionaire chief executive officer of Fisher Investments Inc., dismissing notions that developed economies face below-average growth.

BusinessWeek: Apple Threatens Search Giants’ Mobile Ad Shares. Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo! have swiftly lost share in the U.S. mobile advertising market to Apple’s new iAd. Independent rivals such as Jumptap and Millennial Media are gaining, too.

CNBC: Asia to Grow 8.2% in 2010, Fastest in 3 Years: ADB. Growth across Asia and the Pacific will be the fastest this year since 2007 as the region recovers strongly from the global crisis, but will moderate in 2011, the Asian Development Bank said on Tuesday.

Forbes: It’s Time For The U.S. To Export Natural Gas. The U.S. has a glut of natural gas. It’s time we start exporting it.

MarketWatch: ‘Long, slow’ summer to weigh on brokers. Analysts cut third-quarter earnings estimates for Goldman and Morgan Stanley as slow summer trading by clients continues into September

Reuters: U.S. business fears “downward spiral” in China trade. Congressional passage of a bill to pressure Beijing to revalue its currency could further harm U.S.-Chinese trade relations already hampered by mutual mistrust and suspicion, U.S. companies invested in China said on Monday.

The Business Insider: Google makes its most ridiculous investment yet.

The Financial Times: Goldman star rises -Evans is gaining on US rivals.

The Guardian: Shell increases trade with Iran. Oil giant steps up orders of Iranian crude despite others halting due to sanctions imposed by UN, EU and US.

The New York Times: Saab Talks With BMW About Forming Alliance.The struggling Swedish brand, now owned by Spyker Cars of the Netherlands, could obtain hybrid and other fuel-saving technology from BMW.

The Telegraph: Savers told to stop moaning and start spending. Older households can afford to suffer and should “not expect” to live off interest payments because they benefited from property price rises, Bank of England deputy warns.

The Wall Street Journal: U.K.’s Immigration Rules Slammed. Large corporations and other employers are turning up the heat on the U.K. government as it finalizes new immigration rules that industry says would restrict their ability to recruit key talent.

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