Image by JeanM1 via Flickr
Assorted links for today:
Friday Outlook: Stocks Could End April on Earnings Tail Wind.
Live footage from The Royal Wedding: the pre-nuptial frenzy, the procession, the ceremony and the after-party madness live from London.
WSJ: William and Kate Pronounced Husband and Wife.
And, a date to remember: the first debate of the Republican presidential primary season, of 2012, is on May 5.
Click to transfer to WSJ’s interactive graph
As posted earlier, the economic benefits of UK’s royals & the T-Mobile ad:
Morgan Stanley reports first quarter 2011 - Thursday, April 21, 7:30 AM. Image via Wikipedia
More than 100 S&P 500 companies; including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, are reporting earnings in the week ahead. Calculated Risk highlighted these housing events for week 16:
- Monday: April homebuilder confidence.
- Tuesday: March housing starts.
- Wednesday: March existing home sales.
See full list of the most important reports here: Schedule for Week of April 17th.
Tomorrow, Monday’s numbers via MarketWatch: Stocks to watch Monday: TI, Halliburton, Citi and tech video commentary: US Week Ahead: Apple, Intel, PlayBook Key the News.
S&P500 Index at Inflection Points – 1997-2010:
Source: Dr. David P. Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management [via The Big Picture]
CNN translated the 2010 Dow Jones Industrial Average market moves into notes:
Using a five-note scale spanning three octaves, pitch is determined by each day’s closing level. Heavy trading volume – most notably on the day of the May 6 ‘Flash Crash’ – leads to high musical volume. Notice the piano tends to play quietly around holidays.
Listen on CNN here: The Dow Piano.
[via The Big Picture]
Noble Energy Rig - by dans le grand bleu via Flickr
Goldman Sachs encourages investors to buy options on energy shares before the Institute for Supply Management presents the manufacturing report tomorrow because the shares are expected to have larger-than-average swings:
“Equity derivatives strategists John Marshall and Maria Grant recommended buying options on 25 stocks, including Chesapeake Energy Corp. and Noble Energy Inc., that historically have had above-average price moves on days when ISM data are released and whose options are “inexpensive.””
Full recommendation via BusinessWeek here.
Image by greekadman via Flickr
“In the prior near-miss recessions of 1967, 1985, 1995, 1998 and the 2003 near- double-dip, the S&P 500 delivered an average return of 15% from the start of September to January-end. Once recession fears subside, we believe the global cyclicals – Energy, Materials, Industrials and Technology — should rally the most, as they are best positioned to benefit from exceptionally low rates in the US and healthy global growth. They are also the sectors most exposed to healthy US business spending. We reiterate our overweight on Technology, Energy and Materials and equal weight on Industrials.”
The Business Insider has more via Bank of America Merrill Lynch here.
“The chart above over the last 12 months of: a) the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index (data here) and the S&P 500 Volatility Index (data here) show that the financial markets went through a rough patch in May, June and July of slightly elevated risk, but have now recovered to the conditions that prevailed in the spring. The recent improvements in these two daily market measures of risk should probably mean that the chances of a double-dip recession are much less likely now than at any time over the last four months.”
[via Mark J. Perry & Bloomberg]
Scott Grannis continues to stay optimistic after today’s downward revision to second quarter GDP:
“Regardless, it remains the case that profits have more than doubled since 1998, while the S&P 500 has not budged, on balance, over the past 12 years. As I’ve been arguing for a long time, the equity market looks very undervalued to me. Perhaps that’s because, like the bond market (see my post from yesterday), the equity market believes the future will be very grim.”
Read the rest of his thoughts: Corporate profits are very strong.
[via Calafia Beach Pundit]
“Meanwhile, of course, growth across the overall United States economy has been lackluster, slowing down significantly in recent quarters. And while companies may be sitting on mountains of profits, they have still been reluctant to use those profits to hire additional workers.”
[via BEA & Economix]
Readers of The Wall Street Journal are not that confident:
Image by BeautySeeer via Flickr
“Collectible cars have outperformed stocks, at least in the past four years, according to the Hagerty’s Cars That Matter “Blue Chip” Index, compiled by auto appraiser David Kinney of Great Falls, Virginia. The index, which contains the estimated values of 25 of the most popular collectible autos, increased more than 61 percent from September 2006, when it started, to the end of July.
That compares with a 16 percent loss in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The 1958 Ferrari 250 GT California Spyder LWB gained 131 percent in that period to an estimated value of $3.3 million, according to the HCTM index.”
More from Bloomberg here: Bugattis Sell for ‘Crazy Money’ as Classic Cars Beat S&P 500.
Five Reasons the Long-Term Bull Market Rally Will Resume:
1. Europe learned from the US crisis and made all the right moves.
2. Second-quarter earnings reports have been great & the sentiment pendulum has swung positive.
3. The leaders to the downside have stabilized, GS & BP.
4. The first higher low is in place confirming buying interest.
5. Doctor Copper is forecasting a strengthening economy.
Read the detailed arguments here (Via MJ Perry).