Tag Archives: Stock Market

Obama Approval vs. S&P 500

4 Feb

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American Welfare Visualized

9 Mar

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Click x2 for a closer view

 

HT: streem84 & Kids Prefer Cheese

Worlds Of Welfare Capitalism

8 Mar

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Gøsta Esping-Andersen’s The Three Worlds Of Welfare Capitalism, from 1990, explains the historical backdrop of democracy and different tax regimes:

«The first major welfare-state initiatives occurred prior to democracy and were powerfully motivated by the desire to arrest its realization. This was certainly the case in France under Napoleon III, in Germany under Bismarck, and in Austria under von Taaffe. Conversely, welfare-state development was most retarded where democracy arrived early, such as in the United States, Australia, and Switzerland. This apparent contradiction can be explained, but only with reference to social classes and social structure: nations with early democracy were overwhelmingly agrarian and dominated by small property owners who used their electoral powers to reduce, not raise, taxes (Dich, 1973). In contrast, ruling classes in authoritarian polities were better positioned to impose high taxes on an unwilling populace.»

USA: Poor vs Rich – or rather a question of moral values?

HT: darrylzuk & Paul Kedrosky.

The Most Respected Companies

13 Feb

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Apple CEO Steve Jobs showing the new Apple Mac...

1) Apple

2) Amazon.com

3) Berkshire Hathaway

4) IBM

5) McDonald’s

    Full list from Barron’s here.

    Highlighting The Hottest Sectors

    5 Feb

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    Hot vs not in the US markets.

    From Macroman [via The Big Picture]

    Stock Market Returns Over Time

    3 Jan

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    At the time, the average individual investor expected that the stock market would return about 10 percent a year over the next 10 to 20 years — or about 7 percent after inflation — according to surveys by the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center, as well as UBS and Gallup. 

    From another aesthetical, yet informative visualiztion piece from NY Times on investing over time: In Investing, It’s When You Start And When You Finish.

    [The Business Insider via NY Times]

    Best And Worst Performing Stock Markets Of 2010

    30 Dec

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    According to data collected by DailyFinance (as of Dec 24.) the Philippines had the best-performing equity market in the world providing investors with a 58% return.

    The winners followed the 2010 trends: China and rising commodity, specifically metals, prices.

    Full story from DailyFinance here.  [Chart via The Business Insider]

    Pousser à La Hausse

    5 Nov

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    Milai Bull

    Milai Bull via Wikipedia

    Barron’s: Betting on a B of A Bounce. Options traders see a rebound, albeit limited, in the beleaguered bank’s shares.Royal Bank of Scotland has plunged back into the red with a £1.4bn ($2.3bn) pre-tax loss during the three months to September.

    BBC: RBS back in red with £1.4bn loss. Royal Bank of Scotland has plunged back into the red with a £1.4bn ($2.3bn) pre-tax loss during the three months to September.

    Bloomberg: Mobius Says World Bull Market Faces No Risks `Any Time Soon’. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond purchase plan will further drive the rally for global stocks and push commodity prices “higher and higher,” said Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius.

    BusinessWeek: Five Secrets Of Charismatic Leadership. Even if you lack charisma, you can still mobilize your team by following a tried-and-true formula, writes Nick Tasler, who points out that introverts often outperform extroverts at the top.

    CNBC: Europe Wants to Curb Rating Agencies’ Influence. Credit rating agencies may have to tell a country three days in advance if they plan to downgrade its sovereign debt and publication of rating changes may be limited until after the market close.

    Forbes: Three Keys To Giving Great Presentations. Few things in the business world are scarier than public speaking and making presentations to large groups.

    MarketWatch: Contrarian analysis of new bull-market high. With the stock market at a new bull-market high, we now know that the stock market’s weakness over the last six months was nothing more severe than a mere correction within an ongoing bull market.

    Reuters:  Obama may deal on tax cuts. The president is willing to talk with Republicans about an extension of Bush-era tax cuts for all income levels, the White House said.

    The Business Insider: Citi: Almost Half Of Next Year’s Growth Depends On The Bush Tax Cuts Being Extended. A huge market concern

    The Economist: The Republicans ride in. Now they must prove that there is more to their cause than blind fury.

    The Financial Times: Scientists unveil moving 3D holograms.

    The Guardian: One-fifth of UK households had no one in work last year. Office of National Statistics figures reveal no one had job in 19% of homes with working age occupants, compared with 16% in 2008.

    The New York Times: Money for Scientific Research May Be Scarce With a Republican-Led House. Federal financing of science research, which has risen quickly since the Obama administration came to power, could fall back to pre-Obama levels if the incoming Republican leadership in the House of Representatives follows through on its list of campaign promises.

    The Telegraph: Silicon roundabout backed. Government wants to encourage investment in British tech industry.

    The Wall Street Journal:  Hermès Heirs Put Safety in Numbers. The founding dynasty behind French fashion brand Hermès has stuck together for nearly two centuries. That unity is now being tested by the luxury goods world’s most aggressive entrepreneur: Bernard Arnault.

    What The New Congress Means For Wall Street

    3 Nov

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    The White House

    The White House by Scorpions and Centaurs via Flickr

    The Wall Street Journal is considering how the new congress will affect different market segments:

    “Watch out for anyone who tells you “divided government is good for the stock market.” The historical basis for this – such as data since 1949 via the Stock Trader’s Almanac-is meager. You can’t extrapolate universal rules from such a small amount of data. The results are too heavily skewed by the Reagan (1981-86) and Clinton (1995-2001) booms under divided governments. “The mantra that gridlock is good for the markets is not borne out by the evidence,” says Bob Johnson, senior managing director at the CFA Institute, a trade organization for professional investors.”

    You find the details here.

    The Gloomy Doomsday Pattern

    4 Oct

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    “The nearby chart depicts how the stock market over the last year and a half has followed a path eerily similar to that of 1937. This week corresponds on the chart to mid-August 1937, when the cumulative effects of massive hikes in personal and corporate tax rates, severe monetary tightening, and aggressive business-bashing by the Roosevelt administration tipped the economy into the “depression inside the Depression.” From there, stocks were in for the longest and second-deepest bear market in history.”

    Full story from The Wall Street Journal: The Trade and Tax Doomsday Clocks.

    Thursday Transaction Testimony

    30 Sep

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    Barron’s: Strong Stocks or Debilitated Dollar? Stocks are up only in terms of a declining dollar. In real terms, relative to gold, stocks have gone nowhere.

    BBC: Moody’s adds to Spain downgrades. Spain has lost its last triple-A credit rating with the major rating agencies, following a downgrade from Moody’s.

    Bloomberg: Nordics Seek `Polluter Pays’ Bank Tax to Fund Crises. Sweden, Finland and Denmark are promoting a European Union-wide bank levy to force lenders to help share the clean-up costs of future banking crises.

    BusinessWeek: Blame Hyperactivity on Genes, Not Poor Parenting. Don’t blame attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder on poor parenting or excess candy. A new study suggests it’s all about genes.

    trader

    Trading by killthebird via Flickr

    CNBC: Thursday’s Senate Banking Testimony – What to Expect. Wall Street will be closely watching the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday as the nation’s top financial officials testify about the roll out of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law.

    Forbes: Dems Need More Than Just Votes. Democrats may be hurting with young, poor and minority voters who often need a particular motivator.

    MarketWatch: Auto makers’ strong finish. Auto makers are expected to post solid gains for September, boosting hopes for upbeat end of year.

    Reuters: Jobless claims to dip slightly. A Reuters poll sees a small improvement in U.S. jobless claims, but not nearly enough to rally confidence.

    The Business Insider: Gold is starting to climb the list of greatest bubbles ever.

    The Financial Times: Ireland unveils bank rescue package. Country’s fiscal deficit expected to rise to 32% of GDP.

    The Guardian: US politics is angry, polarised, and gridlocked. Can it be reformed? Washington moves at the pace of Brezhnev’s Soviet Union. It needs to be more like Silicon Valley if it is to compete with China.

    The New York Times: China May Soon Make Use of Its Solar Assets. China has established itself as a leading producer of solar energy equipment, but it has made surprisingly little use of solar energy at home.

    The Telegraph: 205mph electric jet Jaguar. Jaguar’s radical electric concept supercar wows Paris.

    The Wall Street Journal: Mobile-Home Industry Seeks Comeback. Builders of manufactured homes missed out on the great American housing boom. Now some of them hope their industry has finally stopped imploding.

    Arbitrage Allure Du Jour

    29 Sep

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    Barron’s: A Bullish Option on Gold. Buying calls on a popular gold ETF is one way to play a possible new round of Federal Reserve bond buying.

    BBC: Europe set for austerity protests. Thousands of people from across the EU are expected to march in Brussels to protest against sweeping austerity measures by many national governments.

    Red light on Wall Street

    Red Light? - by Ben Sutherland via Flickr

    Bloomberg: Spain Girds for First General Strike in 8 Years to Protest Cuts.Spanish workers held their first general strike in eight years, disrupting energy demand and transportation, to protest Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero ’s spending cuts and easing of labor laws.

    BusinessWeek: College Grads Ranks Top Employers. Google is still No. 1 for business students in the latest Universum ranking; the Big Four accounting firms round out the top five.

    CNBC: 7 Reasons Why The Market Stays Higher. Investors on Tuesday learned that US consumer confidence is at its lowest level since February, but that didn’t stop the market from maintaining its 9 percent gain this month. Despite negative news, Cramer said the market continues to push higher for these seven reasons.

    Forbes: Chevron Goes Deep Off Canada. Oil giant quietly drills first deepwater well in North America since BP disaster.

    MarketWatch: Crocs back in fashion. Maker of brightly colored clogs and now actual shoes as well regains its stock-market stride.

    Reuters: Quantitative easing on horizon? Federal Reserve presidents take to their respective podiums amid reports of a second round of quantitative easing.

    The Business Insider: Hugh Hendry Making Huge $2 Billion Bet On Asia’s Failure. Hendry is making a big bet against Japanese credit.
    The Financial Times: Manufacturing optimism lifts Japan and China shares.

    The Guardian: Defence cuts ‘draconian’, Fox warns Cameron. “Draconian” cuts to defence spending cannot be carried out while the country is at war without risking serious damage to troops’ morale, Dr Liam Fox warns PM in private letter.

    The New York Times: Congress Likely to Urge China to Raise Its Currency. The House will vote Wednesday on a measure threatening punitive tariffs on China’s imports to the United States.

    The Telegraph: Buffett fund illustrates ‘rip off’ management charges. Terry Smith uses Berkshire Hathaway to show how high fees eat up returns.

    The Wall Street Journal: Walloping the Middle Class. The Democrats’ tax punt may mean that a family of four with an income of $45,000 will pay $2,083 more in taxes.

    The Wargument: Why Dow Is Heading For $38k By 2025

    28 Sep

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    Jeff Hirsch forecasted that we would see Dow in $38K in 2025 this morning (Discussed here, and full piece here):

    “He argues that the current secular Bear market will end ~18 years after the last secular Bull market ended in March 2,000. I cannot place the end of the Bear that precisely, but I figure its coming sometime this decade.

    Ironically, the route Jeff takes to get to $38k uses an approach similar to Prechter’s: Long historic cycles that impact group psychology, with regular wars that lead to massive government interventions and big inflation (so far so good). As the chart below shows, major global wars were followed in the 20th century by high inflation and 500% market moves over the following decades. Note huge 1447% Dow move from 1982 – 2000 — the theory being it was caused by an outsized 207% CPI inflation.”

    Full story: War & Peace + Inflation + Secular Bull = Dow 38K ?

    [via The Big Picture]

    In An Age Of Macro Forces – Is The Art Of Stock Picking Dead?

    26 Sep

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    The poll result from The Wall Street Journal so far:

    “More and more investors aren’t bothering to pore through corporate reports searching for gems and duds, but are trading big buckets of stocks, bonds and commodities based mainly on macro concerns. As a result, all kinds of stocks—good as well as bad—are moving more in lock step.”

    Vote and share your opinion here.

    Wrapping The Best September In More Than 50 Years?

    26 Sep

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    Orimattila historic rally 2007: 1

    Rally? by sjarvinen via Flickr

    One of the grimmest months of the year is turning out to perform better than expected – is this september different from the last 50?

    “Unless double-dip doubters drag U.S. stocks down in final week, the month is shaping up to be the best September since 1939.”

    Full story from MarketWatch here.

    Economic Relations: Sentences To Ponder

    26 Sep

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    Stock Exchange

    Image by Travel Aficionado via Flickr

    Justin Wolfers sat down with the Richmond Fed’s Aaron Steelman talking about his recent research projects and perspectives on economics generally. Excerpt:

    “What is interesting to think about are the terms of trade between economics and all these other disciplines. We are clearly a net exporter to political science and sociology. But at this point the trade with psychology is almost all one way. We are a near-complete importer. I wonder why we haven’t been bigger exporters to psychology. I think it has to do with the research method. Like political scientists and sociologists, economists are almost all about the analysis of observational data. And then there are second-order differences. Formal political scientists write down a model before they observe data; informal ones don’t. Ethnographers observe four people; survey researchers observe 4,000. But it’s all observational. But when I watch and speak with my friends in psychology, very little of their work is about analyzing observational data. It’s about experiments, real experiments, with very interesting interventions. So they have a different method of trying to isolate causation. I am certain that we have an enormous amount to learn from them. But I am curious why we have not been able to convince them of the importance of careful analysis of observational data.”

    There’s plenty more on subjects ranging from prediction markets to happiness, discrimination, inflation expectations and political economy. If you’re interested in learning more, click here for the full interview – or catch the shortened blog post from Freakonomics here.

    Taleb Prefer Betting With Soros Rather Than Buffet

    25 Sep

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    George Soros - World Economic Forum Annual Mee...

    Soros has better investing skills than Buffet? via World Economic Forum via Flickr

    If Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, was confronted with a choice between investing with Warren Buffett and billionaire investor George Soros - he said to BusinessWeek that he would probably pick the latter:

    “I am not saying Buffett isn’t as good as Soros,” he said. “I am saying that the probability Soros’s returns come from randomness is much smaller because he did almost everything: he bought currencies, he sold currencies, he did arbitrages. He made a lot more decisions. Buffett followed a strategy to buy companies that had a certain earnings profile, and it worked for him. There is a lot more luck involved in this strategy.”

    Soros became famous in the 1990s when he reportedly made $1 billion while betting against the British pound. Get the details and the comments he made about Obamas economic  strategy during a Montreal visit here.

    Friday Financial Fraternité

    17 Sep

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    Barron’s: Are the Charts Lining Uo for A Bull Market? Comparisons to September 2004 suggest that the stock market could soon bottom.

    BBC: One in seven ‘in poverty in US. One in seven Americans was living in poverty in 2009 with the level of working-age poor the highest since the 1960s, the US Census Bureau says.

    Uncle Sam

    Image by AJC1 via Flickr

    Bloomberg: Senate Approves Tax Cuts, Eased Credit for Small Businesses. The U.S. Senate approved legislation to cut taxes and ease credit for small businesses in a long-delayed victory for Democrats eager to show voters they are working to create jobs.

    BusinessWeek: Economy’s Fix: Think Years, Not Quarters. Tom Keene talks with Bob Shiller, Peter Orszag, and other leading economists on how to “get out of this mess”.

    CNBC: RIM Shares Push Higher as Results, Outlook Top Forecasts.The smartphone maker posted quarterly results that exceeded analysts’ expectations and raised its outlook for the current quarter on Thursday, sending shares higher in late trading.

    Forbes: My Worst Vendor: The U.S. Government. The problem with government-run businesses is not just their high cost.

    MarketWatch: Oracle sales rise 48%. Software giant reports higher profit, says it will invest $4 billion in research and development.

    Reuters: Stocks set to make a comeback. U.S. stocks are expected to make strong gains by the end of 2010 as fears of a double-dip recession ease, a Reuters poll finds.

    The Economist: Sizing up China’s cities. Policymakers should embrace mega-cities. Businessmen should escape them.

    The Business Insider: The Great Housing Bamboozle: How The Numbers Show Home Ownership Is A Terrible Investment.

    The Financial Times: National interests collide in the new world disorder.

    The Guardian: Shock fall in UK retail sales adds to fears of double-dip. August figures for high street spending provide latest evidence that UK economy is cooling.

    The New York Times: A More Nuanced Look at Poverty Numbers.

    The Telegraph: Royal Bank of Scotland takes a knock.

    The Wall Street Journal: China’s Yuan Gesture Could Backfire. The sudden rise in the Chinese yuan has fueled speculation that Beijing is trying to head off a political backlash in the U.S., but its approach risks aggravating anger in Washington instead.

    [Chart via Barron's]

    Banking Beat Exchange

    15 Sep

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    Barron’s: Which Stock Sector Will Lead the Next Bull Market? History tells us that the sector that led the last rally rarely repeats. But here’s one sector that financial advisers are keen on for the next rally.

    BBC: French Senate approves veil ban. France’s Senate has overwhelmingly approved a bill that would ban wearing the Islamic full veil in public.

    Bloomberg: U.S. Stocks Drop as Financial Shares Slump, Technology Rallies. U.S. stocks fell, preventing the longest Standard & Poor’s 500 Index winning streak since July, as concern that Bank of America Corp. may have to buy back $20 billion in home loans offset a rally by technology companies.

    BusinessWeek: The 20 Easiest Ways To Get Rich.

    A view from the Member's Gallery inside the NYSE

    The the Member's Gallery inside the NYSE via Wikipedia

    CNBC: Crash of ’87 Gave Birth to High-Frequency Trading. Here’s How.A small coterie of professionals exploited the Nasdaq’s automated trading system for retail investors and turned it into a complex computerized network.

    Forbes: Gender Wage Gap Shrinks To Record Low. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the wage gap between men and women has narrowed so dram.

    MarketWatch: Cisco kicks back cash: Networking giant has been sitting on the biggest cash piles in the industry with investors clamoring for a return, writes Therese Poletti.

    Reuters: Japan intervenes for 1st time in six years to cap yen. Japan stepped into the currency market on Wednesday for the first time in six years, selling yen to stem a rise that is threatening a fragile economic recovery.

    The Economist: Bagehot notes that some Tories are already thinking the unthinkable.

    The Business Insider: Here are 11 signs that the double dip is dead.

    The Financial Times: Richard Bernstein: Did Bush tax cuts hurt the US?

    The Guardian: PM and ministers provoked by warning over police cuts, while Charles Kennedy reveals tensions in coalition.

    The New York Times: BMW Goes for Reverse Psychology.

    The Telegraph: Myth of the underpaid public sector worker. Public sector workers are paid £74 a week more on average than those in the private sector, an ONS report found.

    The Wall Street Journal: Obstacle to Deficit Cutting: Entitlements. Efforts to tame the U.S. deficit could soon confront a daunting reality: Nearly half of all Americans live in a household in which someone receives benefits, more than at any time in history.

    Before Bell Bulls

    14 Sep

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    Barron’s: The Future Ain’t What it Used to Be, So Borrow Now. Microsoft’s reported plan to borrow to pay dividends speaks to the existential crisis facing investors who need current income.

    BBC: Cuba to cut a million public jobs. Those laid off will be encouraged to become self-employed or join new private enterprises, on which some of the current restrictions will be eased.

    Bloomberg: SEC Questions Trading Crusade as Market Makers Disappear.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has spent 15 years remaking the stock market into 11 competing exchanges and hundreds of computer-driven traders. In the process it has virtually eliminated the traditional market makers who bought and sold stocks when no one else would.

    Milai Bull

    Bulls via Wikipedia

    BusinessWeek: Wall Street Banking on Republican Congress. The financial community hopes a GOP surge will restrain federal agencies gearing up to write new regulations. Divided government is the goal.

    CNBC: Yuan at New High, China Seen Under Pressure. The yuan hit a fresh post-revaluation high against the dollar on Tuesday, with Beijing seen conceding to let the yuan rise as U.S. lawmakers urge for tough action on China.

    Forbes: Senate GOP To Oppose Tax Increase. Some Democrats, like Sens. Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Ben Nelson of Nebraska, are siding with Republicans against raising taxes on anyone during a fragile economic recovery.

    MarketWatch: Yen move could feed Aussie bulls: History suggests that Japan’s currency could provide further ammunition for gains in high-yielding currencies from commodity-focused economies, such as the Australian dollar.

    Reuters: AIG formulating plan to exit government ownership: report.

    The Economist: The supply of inequality. Europe, America, and skills-biased technological change.

    The Business Insider:Here’s how hyperinflation will happen in America.

    The Financial Times: Opec at 50: cartel faces new challenges.

    The Guardian: Consumer confidence on rise. Nationwide survey shows increased optimism about the recovery for the first time since the election after three months of falling confidence.

    The New York Times: For the Bad News Bulls, Adversity Is Opportunity. At a time when hedge funds seem gripped by fear, a few big-name investors are betting on large companies that are increasing their sales in China, Brazil and India.

    The Telegraph: Cats, dogs and bull’s sperm. Cash in on our obsession with animals, says Questor’s Gary White.

    The Wall Street Journal: Rafael Nadal, Finally, Wins U.S. Open. Rafael Nadal won his first U.S. Open title after a nearly two-hour rain delay, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 over Novak Djokovic. Nadal has now won all four Grand Slam tournaments at least once.

    Stock Market Performance Has Nothing To Do With The Economy

    9 Sep

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    Crestmont Research published a report that shows a disconnect between the development in the stock market and the performance of the economy:

    “Some of the best decades for U.S. economic growth were some of the worst decades for stock market performance. In turn, some of the best decades for stock market performance actually happened after economic growth slowed. Just look at the 1910′s vs. the 1920′s, or the 1970′s vs. the 1990′s.”

    Grab the story from The Business Insider here.

    Capitalist Entourage

    9 Sep

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    Barron’s: Offshore Drilling, Done the Right Way: After the Gulf disaster, driller Noble may hit bottom, but a rally is coming.

    BBC: Rig firms hit back at BP report.

    Bloomberg: President Barack Obama said the country can’t afford to extend tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and accused Republicans of pushing the “flawed policies” that led to the worst recession since the 1930.

    Fidel Castro reapareció

    20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Fidel Castro admits that the communist model failed in Cuba as well. Image by Globovisión via Flickr

    BusinessWeek: In Britain, Fewer Pubs, More Beer at Home: With unemployment among 18- to 24-year-olds at 20 percent, nightclubs are closing and pints are going domestic.

    MarketWatch: Most stock markets advance in Asia, led by Tokyo and Sydney. But the Shanghai market retreats as banks and property developers drop on worries about further tightening measures from Beijing.

    Reuters: Florida pastor not backing down on Koran-burning.

    The Economist: Smithers burns consensus: Can a bit of deflation be good for developed economies?

    The Business Insider: UBS banker snorts cocaine and jumps off a balcony.

    The Financial Times: Fat is a financial issue: Burden of unremitting rise in obesity.

    The Guardian: Vitamin B could delay Alzheimer’s.

    The New York Times: Big government subsidies for clean energy companies, like cheap land and low-interest loans, may be in violation of W.T.O. rules.

    The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Falls in Ranks of Global Economy.

    Near-Miss Recessions Tend To Cause A Powerful Market Rally

    8 Sep

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    RALLY MAGIC -  IMG_4335 ed+cr

    Image by greekadman via Flickr

    “In the prior near-miss recessions of 1967, 1985, 1995, 1998 and the 2003 near- double-dip, the S&P 500 delivered an average return of 15% from the start of September to January-end. Once recession fears subside, we believe the global cyclicals – Energy, Materials, Industrials and Technology — should rally the most, as they are best positioned to benefit from exceptionally low rates in the US and healthy global growth. They are also the sectors most exposed to healthy US business spending. We reiterate our overweight on Technology, Energy and Materials and equal weight on Industrials.”

    The Business Insider has more via Bank of America Merrill Lynch here.

    Economy Gains From Obama’s Loss

    7 Sep

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    “These two charts are arguably the most important of all the charts I’ve shown over the years, since they are predicting what could prove to be biggest political realignment of the American electorate in modern times. It’s going to begin in just two months, if not sooner, and it could have an extremely positive impact on the outlook for the economy and the equity market.”

    Read the rest of Scott Grannis Blog Post here.

    Why The U.S Is Not Turning Japanese

    5 Sep

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    This is what a working holiday visa for Japan ...

    Image via Wikipedia

    John B. Helmers, hedge fund principal at Swiftwater Capital Management, found three reasons why the U.S is not heading for a Japanese recession:

    “1) Magnitude: In 1989 Japan had massive twin bubbles — both real estate and equity. The Japanese stock market was in the stratosphere with an earnings multiple well north of 100.

    Japan’s real estate bubble was so ludicrous that the Imperial Palace in central Tokyo (only about 5 miles in circumference) was deemed to have the same value as the entire state of California. Now that is a bubble!

    The 2007 property bubble in the U.S., by comparison, was residential-focused and less dramatic. While it is true that aspects of this bubble had ripple effects into other markets (commercial real estate, credit markets and equities), the magnitude of overpricing was nothing like Japan of 1989.

    2) Demographics: Japan’s demographics are abysmal when compared to the U.S. As a primarily mono-cultural society, Japan cannot easily use the immigration lever to counteract the natural graying of a wealthy society.

    The U.S., on the other hand, has a lower average age, a higher birth rate and a history of embracing immigration. All these factors should keep U.S. demographics from having the same deflationary impact as Japan’s did.

    3) Monetary Policy: Japan suffered from severe policy error. The Bank of Japan (BOJ), understandably, did not appreciate the magnitude of the economic and financial problems it faced as the twin bubbles burst.

    Monetary policy was clearly not aggressive enough.”

    Get the detailed arguments on CNBC here: Three Reasons Why We Are Not Going to Become Japan.

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