Tags: Barack Obama, Finance, S&P500, Stock Market
Tag Archives: Stock Market
Worlds Of Welfare Capitalism
8 MarGøsta Esping-Andersen’s The Three Worlds Of Welfare Capitalism, from 1990, explains the historical backdrop of democracy and different tax regimes:
«The first major welfare-state initiatives occurred prior to democracy and were powerfully motivated by the desire to arrest its realization. This was certainly the case in France under Napoleon III, in Germany under Bismarck, and in Austria under von Taaffe. Conversely, welfare-state development was most retarded where democracy arrived early, such as in the United States, Australia, and Switzerland. This apparent contradiction can be explained, but only with reference to social classes and social structure: nations with early democracy were overwhelmingly agrarian and dominated by small property owners who used their electoral powers to reduce, not raise, taxes (Dich, 1973). In contrast, ruling classes in authoritarian polities were better positioned to impose high taxes on an unwilling populace.»
USA: Poor vs Rich – or rather a question of moral values?
HT: darrylzuk & Paul Kedrosky.
Stock Market Returns Over Time
3 JanAt the time, the average individual investor expected that the stock market would return about 10 percent a year over the next 10 to 20 years — or about 7 percent after inflation — according to surveys by the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center, as well as UBS and Gallup.
From another aesthetical, yet informative visualiztion piece from NY Times on investing over time: In Investing, It’s When You Start And When You Finish.
[The Business Insider via NY Times]
The Gloomy Doomsday Pattern
4 Oct“The nearby chart depicts how the stock market over the last year and a half has followed a path eerily similar to that of 1937. This week corresponds on the chart to mid-August 1937, when the cumulative effects of massive hikes in personal and corporate tax rates, severe monetary tightening, and aggressive business-bashing by the Roosevelt administration tipped the economy into the “depression inside the Depression.” From there, stocks were in for the longest and second-deepest bear market in history.”
Full story from The Wall Street Journal: The Trade and Tax Doomsday Clocks.
Arbitrage Allure Du Jour
29 SepBarron’s: A Bullish Option on Gold. Buying calls on a popular gold ETF is one way to play a possible new round of Federal Reserve bond buying.
BBC: Europe set for austerity protests. Thousands of people from across the EU are expected to march in Brussels to protest against sweeping austerity measures by many national governments.
Bloomberg: Spain Girds for First General Strike in 8 Years to Protest Cuts.Spanish workers held their first general strike in eight years, disrupting energy demand and transportation, to protest Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero ’s spending cuts and easing of labor laws.
BusinessWeek: College Grads Ranks Top Employers. Google is still No. 1 for business students in the latest Universum ranking; the Big Four accounting firms round out the top five.
CNBC: 7 Reasons Why The Market Stays Higher. Investors on Tuesday learned that US consumer confidence is at its lowest level since February, but that didn’t stop the market from maintaining its 9 percent gain this month. Despite negative news, Cramer said the market continues to push higher for these seven reasons.
Forbes: Chevron Goes Deep Off Canada. Oil giant quietly drills first deepwater well in North America since BP disaster.
MarketWatch: Crocs back in fashion. Maker of brightly colored clogs and now actual shoes as well regains its stock-market stride.
Reuters: Quantitative easing on horizon? Federal Reserve presidents take to their respective podiums amid reports of a second round of quantitative easing.
The Business Insider: Hugh Hendry Making Huge $2 Billion Bet On Asia’s Failure. Hendry is making a big bet against Japanese credit.
The Financial Times: Manufacturing optimism lifts Japan and China shares.
The Guardian: Defence cuts ‘draconian’, Fox warns Cameron. “Draconian” cuts to defence spending cannot be carried out while the country is at war without risking serious damage to troops’ morale, Dr Liam Fox warns PM in private letter.
The New York Times: Congress Likely to Urge China to Raise Its Currency. The House will vote Wednesday on a measure threatening punitive tariffs on China’s imports to the United States.
The Telegraph: Buffett fund illustrates ‘rip off’ management charges. Terry Smith uses Berkshire Hathaway to show how high fees eat up returns.
The Wall Street Journal: Walloping the Middle Class. The Democrats’ tax punt may mean that a family of four with an income of $45,000 will pay $2,083 more in taxes.
The Wargument: Why Dow Is Heading For $38k By 2025
28 SepJeff Hirsch forecasted that we would see Dow in $38K in 2025 this morning (Discussed here, and full piece here):
“He argues that the current secular Bear market will end ~18 years after the last secular Bull market ended in March 2,000. I cannot place the end of the Bear that precisely, but I figure its coming sometime this decade.
Ironically, the route Jeff takes to get to $38k uses an approach similar to Prechter’s: Long historic cycles that impact group psychology, with regular wars that lead to massive government interventions and big inflation (so far so good). As the chart below shows, major global wars were followed in the 20th century by high inflation and 500% market moves over the following decades. Note huge 1447% Dow move from 1982 – 2000 — the theory being it was caused by an outsized 207% CPI inflation.”
Full story: War & Peace + Inflation + Secular Bull = Dow 38K ?

[via The Big Picture]
In An Age Of Macro Forces – Is The Art Of Stock Picking Dead?
26 SepThe poll result from The Wall Street Journal so far:
“More and more investors aren’t bothering to pore through corporate reports searching for gems and duds, but are trading big buckets of stocks, bonds and commodities based mainly on macro concerns. As a result, all kinds of stocks—good as well as bad—are moving more in lock step.”
Vote and share your opinion here.
Economic Relations: Sentences To Ponder
26 SepJustin Wolfers sat down with the Richmond Fed’s Aaron Steelman talking about his recent research projects and perspectives on economics generally. Excerpt:
“What is interesting to think about are the terms of trade between economics and all these other disciplines. We are clearly a net exporter to political science and sociology. But at this point the trade with psychology is almost all one way. We are a near-complete importer. I wonder why we haven’t been bigger exporters to psychology. I think it has to do with the research method. Like political scientists and sociologists, economists are almost all about the analysis of observational data. And then there are second-order differences. Formal political scientists write down a model before they observe data; informal ones don’t. Ethnographers observe four people; survey researchers observe 4,000. But it’s all observational. But when I watch and speak with my friends in psychology, very little of their work is about analyzing observational data. It’s about experiments, real experiments, with very interesting interventions. So they have a different method of trying to isolate causation. I am certain that we have an enormous amount to learn from them. But I am curious why we have not been able to convince them of the importance of careful analysis of observational data.”
There’s plenty more on subjects ranging from prediction markets to happiness, discrimination, inflation expectations and political economy. If you’re interested in learning more, click here for the full interview – or catch the shortened blog post from Freakonomics here.
Friday Financial Fraternité
17 Sep
Barron’s: Are the Charts Lining Uo for A Bull Market? Comparisons to September 2004 suggest that the stock market could soon bottom.
BBC: One in seven ‘in poverty in US‘. One in seven Americans was living in poverty in 2009 with the level of working-age poor the highest since the 1960s, the US Census Bureau says.
Bloomberg: Senate Approves Tax Cuts, Eased Credit for Small Businesses. The U.S. Senate approved legislation to cut taxes and ease credit for small businesses in a long-delayed victory for Democrats eager to show voters they are working to create jobs.
BusinessWeek: Economy’s Fix: Think Years, Not Quarters. Tom Keene talks with Bob Shiller, Peter Orszag, and other leading economists on how to “get out of this mess”.
CNBC: RIM Shares Push Higher as Results, Outlook Top Forecasts.The smartphone maker posted quarterly results that exceeded analysts’ expectations and raised its outlook for the current quarter on Thursday, sending shares higher in late trading.
Forbes: My Worst Vendor: The U.S. Government. The problem with government-run businesses is not just their high cost.
MarketWatch: Oracle sales rise 48%. Software giant reports higher profit, says it will invest $4 billion in research and development.
Reuters: Stocks set to make a comeback. U.S. stocks are expected to make strong gains by the end of 2010 as fears of a double-dip recession ease, a Reuters poll finds.
The Economist: Sizing up China’s cities. Policymakers should embrace mega-cities. Businessmen should escape them.
The Business Insider: The Great Housing Bamboozle: How The Numbers Show Home Ownership Is A Terrible Investment.
The Financial Times: National interests collide in the new world disorder.
The Guardian: Shock fall in UK retail sales adds to fears of double-dip. August figures for high street spending provide latest evidence that UK economy is cooling.
The New York Times: A More Nuanced Look at Poverty Numbers.
The Telegraph: Royal Bank of Scotland takes a knock.
The Wall Street Journal: China’s Yuan Gesture Could Backfire. The sudden rise in the Chinese yuan has fueled speculation that Beijing is trying to head off a political backlash in the U.S., but its approach risks aggravating anger in Washington instead.
[Chart via Barron's]
Banking Beat Exchange
15 SepBarron’s: Which Stock Sector Will Lead the Next Bull Market? History tells us that the sector that led the last rally rarely repeats. But here’s one sector that financial advisers are keen on for the next rally.
BBC: French Senate approves veil ban. France’s Senate has overwhelmingly approved a bill that would ban wearing the Islamic full veil in public.
Bloomberg: U.S. Stocks Drop as Financial Shares Slump, Technology Rallies. U.S. stocks fell, preventing the longest Standard & Poor’s 500 Index winning streak since July, as concern that Bank of America Corp. may have to buy back $20 billion in home loans offset a rally by technology companies.
BusinessWeek: The 20 Easiest Ways To Get Rich.
CNBC: Crash of ’87 Gave Birth to High-Frequency Trading. Here’s How.A small coterie of professionals exploited the Nasdaq’s automated trading system for retail investors and turned it into a complex computerized network.
Forbes: Gender Wage Gap Shrinks To Record Low. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the wage gap between men and women has narrowed so dram.
MarketWatch: Cisco kicks back cash: Networking giant has been sitting on the biggest cash piles in the industry with investors clamoring for a return, writes Therese Poletti.
Reuters: Japan intervenes for 1st time in six years to cap yen. Japan stepped into the currency market on Wednesday for the first time in six years, selling yen to stem a rise that is threatening a fragile economic recovery.
The Economist: Bagehot notes that some Tories are already thinking the unthinkable.
The Business Insider: Here are 11 signs that the double dip is dead.
The Financial Times: Richard Bernstein: Did Bush tax cuts hurt the US?
The Guardian: PM and ministers provoked by warning over police cuts, while Charles Kennedy reveals tensions in coalition.
The New York Times: BMW Goes for Reverse Psychology.
The Telegraph: Myth of the underpaid public sector worker. Public sector workers are paid £74 a week more on average than those in the private sector, an ONS report found.
The Wall Street Journal: Obstacle to Deficit Cutting: Entitlements. Efforts to tame the U.S. deficit could soon confront a daunting reality: Nearly half of all Americans live in a household in which someone receives benefits, more than at any time in history.
Before Bell Bulls
14 SepBarron’s: The Future Ain’t What it Used to Be, So Borrow Now. Microsoft’s reported plan to borrow to pay dividends speaks to the existential crisis facing investors who need current income.
BBC: Cuba to cut a million public jobs. Those laid off will be encouraged to become self-employed or join new private enterprises, on which some of the current restrictions will be eased.
Bloomberg: SEC Questions Trading Crusade as Market Makers Disappear.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has spent 15 years remaking the stock market into 11 competing exchanges and hundreds of computer-driven traders. In the process it has virtually eliminated the traditional market makers who bought and sold stocks when no one else would.
BusinessWeek: Wall Street Banking on Republican Congress. The financial community hopes a GOP surge will restrain federal agencies gearing up to write new regulations. Divided government is the goal.
CNBC: Yuan at New High, China Seen Under Pressure. The yuan hit a fresh post-revaluation high against the dollar on Tuesday, with Beijing seen conceding to let the yuan rise as U.S. lawmakers urge for tough action on China.
Forbes: Senate GOP To Oppose Tax Increase. Some Democrats, like Sens. Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Ben Nelson of Nebraska, are siding with Republicans against raising taxes on anyone during a fragile economic recovery.
MarketWatch: Yen move could feed Aussie bulls: History suggests that Japan’s currency could provide further ammunition for gains in high-yielding currencies from commodity-focused economies, such as the Australian dollar.
Reuters: AIG formulating plan to exit government ownership: report.
The Economist: The supply of inequality. Europe, America, and skills-biased technological change.
The Business Insider:Here’s how hyperinflation will happen in America.
The Financial Times: Opec at 50: cartel faces new challenges.
The Guardian: Consumer confidence on rise. Nationwide survey shows increased optimism about the recovery for the first time since the election after three months of falling confidence.
The New York Times: For the Bad News Bulls, Adversity Is Opportunity. At a time when hedge funds seem gripped by fear, a few big-name investors are betting on large companies that are increasing their sales in China, Brazil and India.
The Telegraph: Cats, dogs and bull’s sperm. Cash in on our obsession with animals, says Questor’s Gary White.
The Wall Street Journal: Rafael Nadal, Finally, Wins U.S. Open. Rafael Nadal won his first U.S. Open title after a nearly two-hour rain delay, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 over Novak Djokovic. Nadal has now won all four Grand Slam tournaments at least once.
Stock Market Performance Has Nothing To Do With The Economy
9 SepCrestmont Research published a report that shows a disconnect between the development in the stock market and the performance of the economy:
“Some of the best decades for U.S. economic growth were some of the worst decades for stock market performance. In turn, some of the best decades for stock market performance actually happened after economic growth slowed. Just look at the 1910′s vs. the 1920′s, or the 1970′s vs. the 1990′s.”
Grab the story from The Business Insider here.

Near-Miss Recessions Tend To Cause A Powerful Market Rally
8 Sep“In the prior near-miss recessions of 1967, 1985, 1995, 1998 and the 2003 near- double-dip, the S&P 500 delivered an average return of 15% from the start of September to January-end. Once recession fears subside, we believe the global cyclicals – Energy, Materials, Industrials and Technology — should rally the most, as they are best positioned to benefit from exceptionally low rates in the US and healthy global growth. They are also the sectors most exposed to healthy US business spending. We reiterate our overweight on Technology, Energy and Materials and equal weight on Industrials.”
The Business Insider has more via Bank of America Merrill Lynch here.
Why The U.S Is Not Turning Japanese
5 SepJohn B. Helmers, hedge fund principal at Swiftwater Capital Management, found three reasons why the U.S is not heading for a Japanese recession:
“1) Magnitude: In 1989 Japan had massive twin bubbles — both real estate and equity. The Japanese stock market was in the stratosphere with an earnings multiple well north of 100.
Japan’s real estate bubble was so ludicrous that the Imperial Palace in central Tokyo (only about 5 miles in circumference) was deemed to have the same value as the entire state of California. Now that is a bubble!
The 2007 property bubble in the U.S., by comparison, was residential-focused and less dramatic. While it is true that aspects of this bubble had ripple effects into other markets (commercial real estate, credit markets and equities), the magnitude of overpricing was nothing like Japan of 1989.
2) Demographics: Japan’s demographics are abysmal when compared to the U.S. As a primarily mono-cultural society, Japan cannot easily use the immigration lever to counteract the natural graying of a wealthy society.
The U.S., on the other hand, has a lower average age, a higher birth rate and a history of embracing immigration. All these factors should keep U.S. demographics from having the same deflationary impact as Japan’s did.
3) Monetary Policy: Japan suffered from severe policy error. The Bank of Japan (BOJ), understandably, did not appreciate the magnitude of the economic and financial problems it faced as the twin bubbles burst.
Monetary policy was clearly not aggressive enough.”
Get the detailed arguments on CNBC here: Three Reasons Why We Are Not Going to Become Japan.























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